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The Future of Qadhafi's Rehabilitation

On the surface, the unpleasant process of rehabilitating the 'World-Number-One Terrorist' as Qadhafi used to call himself, appears to be going very well. And why not: {the tyrant paid his dues, and his apologies were accepted}?

Yet, there are signs that a total relapse may not be out of the question.

Let's take a closer look.

[1] Qadhafi is actually using the same logic used by Saddam Hussein, during the war with Iran, to justify his somewhat cozy relations with the West: {temporary circumstances force us to seek the Devil's help}!

And so his more recent change of heart is clearly disingenuous. To be fair, his Western partners are not sincere either. They are simply using him as an attractive example to talk the Korean Communists out of their nukes. Will it work? Who knows?

It may. Or it may not.

[2] Qadhafi, voluntarily, gave up his WMD Programs, for the sake of peace as he claimed. Would you believe it? His diplomats are lobbying very hard to have him awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace! It's like setting the bush on fire and then demanding to be rewarded for putting it out. But even in this case, Qadhafi didn't put out the fire completely. His secret WMD facilities in Cyrenaika are still running and out of the reach of international inspection. However, no one should lose sleep because of it. That is because unlike Saddam Hussein with his Nazi-like capabilities in setting up complex projects and carrying them out ruthlessly, Qadhafi is so incompetent and so wacky and he will never be able to drive anyone to assemble even a grenade under his leadership.

[3] Western leaders have embraced the rehabilitation charade rather hastily. In addition, they have obviously overdone it. That is wrong. It is exactly the same sort of business they did with Yasser Arafat few years ago. And like it, this one will, most likely, end up in a dismal failure. They have overdone it.

There is also the problem of Israel. Qadhafi's anti-Semitism is very deep and old. And it will be very surprising indeed, if his new Western partners manage to cure him of it.

[4] This is, by far, the most crucial factor.

Qadhafi has changed his direction 180 degrees because, and only because of the American victory in Iraq. Just suppose, for the sake of argument, this highly-unlikely scenario: {the Iraqi tribesmen succeed in driving the Coalition forces out of Iraq}. If this happens, then Qadhafi will relapse into his former state of wickedness in no time at all. Pan-Arabism, after the fall of Saddam, is leaderless, and Qadhafi, in that case, will try extremely hard to lead it. Let us expand on this a bit further.

It's often stated, in some circles, that the war on terrorism is far more important than the war on Saddam. Nonsense! The war on terrorism is exactly the same as the war on crime. It can be fought. It can be won. But in the end, it will have no strategic implications whatsoever.

By contrast, in terms of its far-reaching consequences, the invasion of Iraq is the most important battle in the region's recent history. It ranks second only to the Battle of Al-Alamein in North Africa during the Second World War. Its strategic impact on the entire region is immense and immediate. In a nutshell, the Arab tyrannies have been conquered. And Qadhafi's trouble-making tyranny is among them.

Therefore, the long-term behavior of this tyrant hinges entirely on the final outcome in Iraq. Could the Iraqi insurgents defeat the US Army? That is, of course, ‘the light in the end of the long tunnel' for the Tyrannical Bloc in the Arab world.

Is it a forlorn hope on their part? Very likely. Certainly, there are many historic examples of successful insurgencies in Lebanon, Algeria, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc.. But in all of them, an overt, active, and substantial help from foreign governments was present. No foreign government can afford to run the risk of offering its help in this case. And hence, the current insurgency in Iraq is, most certainly, bound to fail and melt away. But before it does, it may have some silver lining in it for the people of Iraq.

Just like many states in Eastern Europe during the Communist Era, Iraq is artificial and can only be held together by brute force. One quick look at Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE for instance, is suffice to convince the skeptic that, in the Middle East, smaller is better.

The life of the Iraqi Kurds and Sunnis and Shiites will be better off, if they can go in their separate ways. If, therefore, the current unrest in Iraq can hasten this natural and desirable break-up, then the insurgents are certainly on the progressive side of history.

And hopefully, that will help cure and rehabilitate Col. Qadhafi completely.

The fear of earthquakes has forced Qadhafi to live in a Bedouin tent.

Will his fear of being invaded force him to behave as a gentleman in the long run?Time will tell.

It's, no doubt, encouraging to see the caretakers of the Libyan Regime trying for the first time ever to talk 'politically correct' and to understand at last that: {Morality does matter. And if you don't have it, pretend you have one. Because if you don't, then, sooner or later, the world will have an open season on you}......

Ali Bin Typhoon

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